What is the TODOS STAT ??? And what do you do with it ??? http://todosstat.com
Todos IS NOT a sheet where you just take the top 4 numbers
, bet them , and go home !!!!
“Todos”
is Spanish for “ALL” … the name reflects our philosophy, that we are taking
what we consider
to be the most important variables to
evaluate horses and putting them ALL into a single number.
The number will
rarely exceed 40 and is always carried to 3 decimal places, Eg. 24.950
The
higher the better … the bookends? Stakes horses score in excess
of 30, low claimers score 22 and
under. Consider this scale:
33-35 … the better performing horses
30-33 … lower level
stakes horses
28-30 … solid
allowance horses, high claimers
26-28 … very good
performances for horses at any level; a maiden special winner at about 27 would
be
considered a horse with good future potential;
maiden special winners typically score about 26.
24-26 … lower to mid
price claimers will run a good race to run to these figures; lower allowance
winners
will run
to this if it is not a race with horses that have potentially great futures
The first 2 digits
purport to find the “level” of the horse … the 3 decimal places, you can look
at them
as if individual numbers, ie.
200, 450 etc. … these serve to discriminate the horses within the same
level.
There is nothing
magical or mystical about any particular number … just as a 10k claimer might
run a
90 Beyer, nothing
prevents any horse from ever superceding his class …
BUT … you will notice a trend,
horses in any particular race will normally all be
within 2 points of each other … therefore, the number
represented by the 3 decimal places serves to
differentiate most of them. The ones not within that 2
point range should be placed under close
scrutiny as to “why?” .
Can you remember the
2005 Preakness … not only trapped inside around the turn … but nearly went
to his knees at the head of the stretch … Afleet Alex … the BEST HORSE … that day … won !!!!
So what does that
mean for track bias, wind, bad trip, shadow roll, blinkers …..
listen ! We are
not
pooh poohing all
these that many other systems use as major focal points, but in our opinion
they
are ‘externalities’ that usually only make a
difference when the abilities of contenders are close.
So what do we
do? We focus on the horse as an athlete
and a very large proportion of our number
is made up of components that measure
athletic attributes. For example, if you were selecting a
boys’ track team for a 100 meter run , you
would run them off against each other and make NO
allowances for bad trip, wind or anything but who got
there first. The best athlete finds “the” way,
and we are looking for the best athletes.
So we use the data we
receive to run tests under a few components for this … then … we make
limiting adjustments for class, bad trips, track
bias, distance, surface and actual different
racetracks.
We don’t care by how
many lengths he won or lost, we don’t care how he went in accordance
with that track’s record … we care how he
performed as an athlete and we have our own criteria
to determine this.
A couple of extreme
examples … recently a Roger Attfield maiden was beaten twice at Gulfstream
in double digit
lengths … his first start at Woodbine, he went off at 45-1, one of the top
rated on our
system
.. won
or was 2nd, can’t remember which !!!
Also, we had a maiden rated 2nd in the 2nd leg
of the Canadian filly triple crown .. 45-1 , lost in a photo !!!
Not trying to brag
here, merely point out that our number quite accurately measures how good a
horse is , and because racing is ‘relative’, ie. relative to who is in against
who … the numbers should help
to discriminate them against each other in
‘that’ setting.
So , HOW do we use the TODOS STAT optimally ???
You MUST acquire the
proper attitude … Todos Stat is a very powerful tool,
perhaps one of the best, it
is NOT the END of the MEANS … it IS the MEANS to an END !!
A few years ago we
started to follow Euro racing … without much background … so how was it
possible
to make sense of 25 horse fields and list the
contenders? The Euro’s provided numbers and graphs with
trend lines … when we started looking seriously
at horses whose graphs were showing improvement
trends we started finding 20-1 winners .. makes sense doesn’t it ???? An improving horse should run
well today !!!!
So we incorporated
the idea into our analysis. Here goes … the last number a horse ran, assuming
it
was not too long ago, assuming he was prepped
for this race, assuming he is healthy … he should run
back to that number or improve on it if his
trend is showing upward movement. Then look at the rest
of the field in the same way … and in a
relative way, the contenders will be apparent.
To be precise, on the
graph, the blue line joins the actual points, the
curvy black line is a moving average
and the straight line … for you stats buffs …
is a computed regression line … ie. Trend line. The trend
in more cases than you will imagine,
accurately reflects the current form of the horse regardless of
distance and surface
… so don’t ignore it.
Some exceptions to
note, (1) if a horse shows clear differences in his numbers for turf, dirt,
synthetic
races
, then you should apply the
appropriate number (but be wary … 1st time turfers
or 1st time dirt,
if they have the highest numbers making the
switch … at least note them ) (2) horses rated slightly
lower than the top 4 … check their trend closely
… guestimate where an extension of the trend line
would put them for today’s race. Conversely,
horses ascending.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND
… THE HORSE HAS BEEN RATED FOR THE MOST PART ON HIS
ATHLETIC ABILITY …
YOU WILL SEE A HORSE’S NUMBERS OVER TIME STAY AT ROUGHLY THE SAME
LEVEL SO THE LAST OR
THE TREND ARE USUALLY THE BEST TO APPLY.
The Todos
number is calculated each race for each horse; it is a measure of the horse’s
athletic ability
displayed in that race. While horses vary from race to race, they don’t vary a
lot, unless the circumstances
are extenuating, for example, sprint vs. route, turf vs. dirt .. sometimes the numbers are very clear between
one or the other … if they are not, the number is valid for either surface
or distance.
The Todos is
a MEANS to an END … that means it is PART of the process leading you to the
right contenders
in a race. By calculating most of the important statistical variables, it
is a very quick way to shorten the list of
serious horses. You should always have a copy of a racing form on hand to use
in conjunction with Todos …
because there are always some intangibles that must be considered and no
computer in the world will analyse
intangibles as well as the true subjective and knowledgeable handicapper.
In Summary, because horses are more
consistent than we like to give them credit for, Todos
points this out, and
frequently high-priced horses have high numbers. Don’t throw them out, also, don’t
accept them blindly .. always
question numbers or statistics with logic and knowledge. You will find more
often than not, if Todos does not give
you the outright winner, it will give you an appropriate group of
well-priced horses to include in your exotics.
This has been working well all summer
in. The number is an accurate reflection of what the horse did in all his races
… whether he does the same, better or
worse today … is the question you must answer … and you can work your
answer around this number with confidence.
Rather than just
lecture on this and without being presumptuous .. here are some exact samples
of what we did recently …
1.
On Queen’s
Plate Day, The Highlander Stakes, Smart Enough (10-1 ML) was rated highest; the
day
before at Royal
Ascot, Cannonball got beat a whisker in a G1, Smart Enough was within a length
of Cannonball at CD
on Derby day … great reference for a good play at 7-1, won drawn off.
2.
Bison
City Stakes – there was a 4/5 horse .. not in our top
4 numbers … 2 horses in the top 4
even though coming
off turf races , had upward moving trend lines … if you didn’t use the
Turf
races they would have been lower BUT the trend line was advancing upward … so
at
12-1
and 45-1 respectively, WHY NOT ??? and they ran
one-two.
3.
It
turns out, whether lucky or not, on Bison City day there were 2 other races
where the top
4
rated horses, using their last race numbers, produced successful triactors .
4.
In
the Dominion Day stakes , Approval Rating at 8 ˝-1 was
rated 2nd and finished 2nd. In a stake
like this with
multiple stakes winners participating, most Class handicappers would have
dismissed
him …
5.
In
general, frequently people will bet down severely a
multilevel dropper … our ratings often show
these horses with similar ratings to others in the
field that day … thereby showing they have only
dropped in to where
they should have been in the first place.
6.
TEXT
BOOK CASE – Dmr
The Wickerr (July 31)
Top
3 rated were Tiz West, Becrux,
Ferneley – all at about 10-1 … single bet on each to
win; Colonel John
a G1 winner was rated
mid-pack off his last race BUT his Todos trend line
was upward sloping
indicating an
“improving” horse ; he was also 1st time turf with an OK turf sire
and an excellent
grass Turkoman dam; saver Exacta – Col John over the top 3 rated
… came in at $44
Bottom line: we have found out, and it is not so much
of a profound statement to make … the better the
quality
of the horses is … the more accurate is the number. As in anything you do,
apply it
with
common sense and we are certain you will enjoy using it.
Generally, we consider
the top 4 rated horses to be ‘live’; if a heavily bet favourite
is not
in
our top 4, you must look at its potential seriously; often we will play a saver
using the
fav with each of our top 4 in exacta boxes; Sat July
4 at Belmont, this play netted us a
$200 exacta when a 35-1
(our 4th rated) beat an even money fav.
And Please Note: we are able to apply it to Euro shippers , invaluable for Stakes Noms
and 1st Time NA starters