What is the TODOS STAT ??? And what do you do with it ??? http://todosstat.com
Todos IS NOT a sheet where you just take the top 4 numbers , bet them , and go home !!!!
“Todos” is Spanish for “ALL” … the name reflects our philosophy, that we are taking what we consider
to be the most important variables to evaluate horses and putting them ALL into a single number.
The number will rarely exceed 40 and is always carried to 3 decimal places, Eg. 24.950
The higher the better … the bookends? Stakes horses score in excess of 30, low claimers score 22 and
under. Consider this scale:
33-35 … the better performing horses
30-33 … lower level stakes horses
28-30 … solid allowance horses, high claimers
26-28 … very good performances for horses at any level; a maiden special winner at about 27 would be
considered a horse with good future potential; maiden special winners typically score about 26.
24-26 … lower to mid price claimers will run a good race to run to these figures; lower allowance winners
will run to this if it is not a race with horses that have potentially great futures
The first 2 digits purport to find the “level” of the horse … the 3 decimal places, you can look at them
as if individual numbers, ie. 200, 450 etc. … these serve to discriminate the horses within the same
There is nothing magical or mystical about any particular number … just as a 10k claimer might run a
90 Beyer, nothing prevents any horse from ever superceding his class … BUT … you will notice a trend,
horses in any particular race will normally all be within 2 points of each other … therefore, the number
represented by the 3 decimal places serves to differentiate most of them. The ones not within that 2
point range should be placed under close scrutiny as to “why?” .
Can you remember the 2005 Preakness … not only trapped inside around the turn … but nearly went
to his knees at the head of the stretch … Afleet Alex … the BEST HORSE … that day … won !!!!
So what does that mean for track bias, wind, bad trip, shadow roll, blinkers ….. listen ! We are not
pooh poohing all these that many other systems use as major focal points, but in our opinion they
are ‘externalities’ that usually only make a difference when the abilities of contenders are close.
So what do we do? We focus on the horse as an athlete and a very large proportion of our number
is made up of components that measure athletic attributes. For example, if you were selecting a
boys’ track team for a 100 meter run , you would run them off against each other and make NO
allowances for bad trip, wind or anything but who got there first. The best athlete finds “the” way,
and we are looking for the best athletes.
So we use the data we receive to run tests under a few components for this … then … we make
limiting adjustments for class, bad trips, track bias, distance, surface and actual different
We don’t care by how many lengths he won or lost, we don’t care how he went in accordance
with that track’s record … we care how he performed as an athlete and we have our own criteria
to determine this.
A couple of extreme examples … recently a Roger Attfield maiden was beaten twice at Gulfstream
in double digit lengths … his first start at Woodbine, he went off at 45-1, one of the top rated on our
system .. won or was 2nd, can’t remember which !!! Also, we had a maiden rated 2nd in the 2nd leg
of the Canadian filly triple crown .. 45-1 , lost in a photo !!!
Not trying to brag here, merely point out that our number quite accurately measures how good a
horse is , and because racing is ‘relative’, ie. relative to who is in against who … the numbers should help
to discriminate them against each other in ‘that’ setting.
So , HOW do we use the TODOS STAT optimally ???
You MUST acquire the proper attitude … Todos Stat is a very powerful tool, perhaps one of the best, it
is NOT the END of the MEANS … it IS the MEANS to an END !!
A few years ago we started to follow Euro racing … without much background … so how was it possible
to make sense of 25 horse fields and list the contenders? The Euro’s provided numbers and graphs with
trend lines … when we started looking seriously at horses whose graphs were showing improvement
trends we started finding 20-1 winners .. makes sense doesn’t it ???? An improving horse should run
well today !!!!
So we incorporated the idea into our analysis. Here goes … the last number a horse ran, assuming it
was not too long ago, assuming he was prepped for this race, assuming he is healthy … he should run
back to that number or improve on it if his trend is showing upward movement. Then look at the rest
of the field in the same way … and in a relative way, the contenders will be apparent.
To be precise, on the graph, the blue line joins the actual points, the curvy black line is a moving average
and the straight line … for you stats buffs … is a computed regression line … ie. Trend line. The trend
in more cases than you will imagine, accurately reflects the current form of the horse regardless of
distance and surface … so don’t ignore it.
Some exceptions to note, (1) if a horse shows clear differences in his numbers for turf, dirt, synthetic
races , then you should apply the appropriate number (but be wary … 1st time turfers or 1st time dirt,
if they have the highest numbers making the switch … at least note them ) (2) horses rated slightly
lower than the top 4 … check their trend closely … guestimate where an extension of the trend line
would put them for today’s race. Conversely, horses ascending.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND … THE HORSE HAS BEEN RATED FOR THE MOST PART ON HIS
ATHLETIC ABILITY … YOU WILL SEE A HORSE’S NUMBERS OVER TIME STAY AT ROUGHLY THE SAME
LEVEL SO THE LAST OR THE TREND ARE USUALLY THE BEST TO APPLY.
The Todos number is calculated each race for each horse; it is a measure of the horse’s athletic ability
displayed in that race. While horses vary from race to race, they don’t vary a lot, unless the circumstances
are extenuating, for example, sprint vs. route, turf vs. dirt .. sometimes the numbers are very clear between
one or the other … if they are not, the number is valid for either surface or distance.
The Todos is a MEANS to an END … that means it is PART of the process leading you to the right contenders
in a race. By calculating most of the important statistical variables, it is a very quick way to shorten the list of
serious horses. You should always have a copy of a racing form on hand to use in conjunction with Todos …
because there are always some intangibles that must be considered and no computer in the world will analyse
intangibles as well as the true subjective and knowledgeable handicapper.
In Summary, because horses are more consistent than we like to give them credit for, Todos points this out, and
frequently high-priced horses have high numbers. Don’t throw them out, also, don’t accept them blindly .. always
question numbers or statistics with logic and knowledge. You will find more often than not, if Todos does not give
you the outright winner, it will give you an appropriate group of well-priced horses to include in your exotics.
This has been working well all summer in. The number is an accurate reflection of what the horse did in all his races
… whether he does the same, better or worse today … is the question you must answer … and you can work your
answer around this number with confidence.
Rather than just lecture on this and without being presumptuous .. here are some exact samples
of what we did recently …
1. On Queen’s Plate Day, The Highlander Stakes, Smart Enough (10-1 ML) was rated highest; the day
before at Royal Ascot, Cannonball got beat a whisker in a G1, Smart Enough was within a length
of Cannonball at CD on Derby day … great reference for a good play at 7-1, won drawn off.
2. Bison City Stakes – there was a 4/5 horse .. not in our top 4 numbers … 2 horses in the top 4
even though coming off turf races , had upward moving trend lines … if you didn’t use the
Turf races they would have been lower BUT the trend line was advancing upward … so at
12-1 and 45-1 respectively, WHY NOT ??? and they ran one-two.
3. It turns out, whether lucky or not, on Bison City day there were 2 other races where the top
4 rated horses, using their last race numbers, produced successful triactors .
4. In the Dominion Day stakes , Approval Rating at 8 ˝-1 was rated 2nd and finished 2nd. In a stake
like this with multiple stakes winners participating, most Class handicappers would have dismissed
5. In general, frequently people will bet down severely a multilevel dropper … our ratings often show
these horses with similar ratings to others in the field that day … thereby showing they have only
dropped in to where they should have been in the first place.
6. TEXT BOOK CASE – Dmr The Wickerr (July 31)
Top 3 rated were Tiz West, Becrux, Ferneley – all at about 10-1 … single bet on each to win; Colonel John
a G1 winner was rated mid-pack off his last race BUT his Todos trend line was upward sloping
indicating an “improving” horse ; he was also 1st time turf with an OK turf sire and an excellent
grass Turkoman dam; saver Exacta – Col John over the top 3 rated … came in at $44
Bottom line: we have found out, and it is not so much of a profound statement to make … the better the
quality of the horses is … the more accurate is the number. As in anything you do, apply it
with common sense and we are certain you will enjoy using it.
Generally, we consider the top 4 rated horses to be ‘live’; if a heavily bet favourite is not
in our top 4, you must look at its potential seriously; often we will play a saver using the
fav with each of our top 4 in exacta boxes; Sat July 4 at Belmont, this play netted us a
$200 exacta when a 35-1 (our 4th rated) beat an even money fav.
And Please Note: we are able to apply it to Euro shippers , invaluable for Stakes Noms and 1st Time NA starters