RACE OF THE MOMENT
(DISCLAIMER: These videos are ‘borrowed’
strictly for the promotion of the sport and
the entertainment of visitors to the site. )
WHAT A GREAT RACE Waldgeist beats Enable 2019 L'ARC DE TRIOMPHE!
FIND YOUR HORSE (Thoroughbreds):
DON’T USE SPEED FIGS
NOTE: ON DUBAI WORLD CUP DAY - using these simple numbers - no speed figs or any
other fabricated scheme - we just hit the double $188 in the 6th onto the 7th races
Speed figs are concocted numbers designed to evaluate horses. The thing is, they are fudged
with various extraneous subjectively picked variables which over time skewer the results or
evaluations and produce inconsistencies in the entire evaluation of horses. They are ok on an
individual horse to show a trend .. improving or dropping form because that is the only valid
Racing is relative to TODAY’s field. There is a way of using the existing numbers, say from DRF ,
doing the calculations quickly and accurately and getting a valid RELATIVE ranking.
I have given this method to some TV people (very few) who use it successfully. I will sell it for
a small amount to anyone interested – you may converse by email , email@example.com
before you make a decision. I’m retired, I don’t care if you buy it or not , I’m just not going to
give anything away when all those turkeys are out there gathering coin.
EASY TO USE
STEP 1: For each horse, select the Todos number that is relevant to today's
conditions. MOST OFTEN it is simply the last one BUT NOT ALWAYS.
STEP 2: Rank the horses in each race according to the Todos number, and make
a GENERAL assumption that the top 4 are live.
STEP 3: Go through each of these top 4 with the Form and look for intangible
reasons why they should NOT be considered contenders; if you find some,
move them out, move others up.
STEP 4: When the wagering starts, if there is heavy betting on a horse not in the
top 4, or if there is a favourite you already know of not in the top 4 ..
consider hedge bets with these other horses on top in Exactors over your
top 4. Sometimes, the Todos has pointed these out as false favourites
correctly . sometimes, these are improving horses that are only about to
achieve a competitive rating against the group they are running against.
These are judgement calls, if the odds are worth it, cover yourself, if not,
leave the race alone if you feel uncomfortable.
On Improving Horses: the Todos graph, if it is moving steadily upward for
a horse not rated in the top 4, project the line in your head to today's date;
if that new Todos number would be competitive with the top 4 . use that
horse. Improving horses at big prices are dangerous !!!!
STEP 5: Reverse use of Todos; last week at Saratoga, in a maiden grass race, trainer
Pletcher was bringing back a horse off a 6-7 month lay-off. An early race of
the horse was very good but not enough to put him in the top 4 . however,
the horse was much younger then and would not have equally been able to
earn a number like the horses all active recently. I just asked myself, if the
horse runs as well as he did 6 months ago, would he beat the top 4 . at 7-1,
I concluded he would and bet exactors over my top 4 . indeed he won and
paid out at a handsome price. Todos gave me the point of comparison and
the contenders to compare with !!!!